Geometric Brownian Motion and Value at Risk For Anal-ysis Stock Price Of Bumi Serpong Damai Ltd

Abstract

Investment is one of the activities that last actually attractive to the people of Indonesia. One of the most widely traded financial assets in the capital market is stocks. Stock prices frequently experience challenges to predict changes, so they can increase or decrease at any time. One method that can be applied to predict stock prices is GBM. Then, the risk can be measured using the VaR risk measure. The GBM model is determined to be accurate in predicting the stock price of BSDE.JK, with a MAPE value of 5.17%. By using VaR-HS and VaR CFE, the prediction of risk of loss at the 95% confidence level for the period 06/07/21 is -0.0597 and -0.0623.